Brunello and Rosso di Montalcino: EXW Cellar Price Trends for Eastern Europe and Asia in 2026

After two harvests of contrasting nature — a generous 2022 and a much smaller, quality-driven 2023 — Montalcino enters 2026 with one of the most interesting pricing dynamics of the last decade. Ex-cellar (EXW) prices for Brunello and Rosso di Montalcino are no longer moving in a single direction: they are bifurcating by buyer geography, by estate tier and by vintage availability. Nowhere is this clearer than in the contrast between Eastern European and Asian markets.

1. The starting point: EXW ranges in early 2026

Across the consortium's roughly 250 bottling estates, indicative EXW cellar prices in Q1 2026 sit in the following ranges:

• Rosso di Montalcino DOC — entry estates: €7.50–9.00 / bottle EXW
• Rosso di Montalcino DOC — premium estates: €10.00–14.00 / bottle EXW
• Brunello di Montalcino DOCG — entry/mid estates: €22.00–28.00 / bottle EXW
• Brunello di Montalcino DOCG — premium estates: €32.00–48.00 / bottle EXW
• Brunello Riserva and single vineyards: €55.00–110.00+ / bottle EXW

Compared with Q1 2024, average EXW prices on Rosso are roughly +3–5% and Brunello roughly +4–7%, with the steepest moves concentrated in the premium tier. The 2019 Brunello, now fully on the market, has acted as a price anchor: a vintage of recognised quality with stable demand has given producers room to lift listings without resistance.

2. Eastern Europe: price-sensitive, volume-hungry

Eastern Europe — Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania, the Baltics, and selectively Ukraine — has become a structurally important channel for Rosso di Montalcino and entry-tier Brunello. Three forces are shaping EXW negotiations there:

• Rising premium HoReCa in Warsaw, Prague and Bucharest pulling demand on Rosso DOC
• A weak złoty and forint vs the euro in 2025 squeezing importer margins
• Strong competition from Chianti Classico and Montepulciano d'Abruzzo on the same shelf

The result: Eastern European importers are accepting modest EXW increases on Brunello (+3–4%) but pushing back hard on Rosso, where many estates have had to hold 2024 prices to defend volume. Estates that diversified beyond a single distributor per country in 2023–2024 are clearly negotiating from a stronger position in 2026.

3. Asia: a two-speed market

Asia is not one market — and Montalcino feels this acutely. Three blocks behave very differently in 2026:

Japan

The most mature Asian market for Brunello. Japanese importers have absorbed EXW increases of +5–7% on premium Brunello with little friction, supported by a stable on-trade and the weakening yen having already been priced in over 2023–2024. Rosso di Montalcino is gaining ground on premium wine lists as a more accessible Sangiovese expression, with EXW typically negotiated in the €11–13 range.

South Korea

Korea has cooled from its 2021–2022 peak but remains a premium-oriented market. Importers are highly selective: they pay willingly for top estates and recognised vintages (2019 Brunello in particular), but resist any increase on entry Brunello where Chilean and Australian premium reds compete aggressively at retail. EXW for premium Brunello: stable to +2% versus 2024.

Mainland China, Hong Kong and Singapore

Mainland China continues its slow recovery after the 2022–2023 downturn; total Italian wine imports there are still well below the 2017 peak. Hong Kong and Singapore, by contrast, behave like premium hubs: thin volumes but very high willingness to pay for Brunello Riserva and single-vineyard bottlings. EXW pricing in these hubs is essentially decoupled from mainland China and routinely +5–10% above Eastern European levels for the same SKU.

4. The currency factor often forgotten

Producers quote in euro, but importers earn in złoty, forint, yen, won, yuan and Hong Kong dollar. In 2025, the yen weakened roughly 8% against the euro, the won around 5%, and the yuan around 3%. For an importer, a flat EXW price is in fact a price increase. Estates that ignore currency context risk losing partners not on the wine, but on the maths.

5. What is driving the upward pressure

• The smaller 2023 harvest in Montalcino (down ~15–20% on 2022) tightening Rosso availability from 2025 onwards
• Rising production costs: glass, corks, labour and energy still 12–18% above 2021 baseline
• Strong global recognition of Brunello 2019 as a benchmark vintage
• Continued premiumisation of Italian wine across mature export markets

6. What is holding prices back

• Macroeconomic caution in Germany and the UK indirectly pressuring Eastern European resale
• Importer inventory still elevated on entry Brunello in some Asian markets
• Aggressive pricing from competing Tuscan denominations on Eastern European shelves
• Slower recovery in mainland China than originally forecast

7. Outlook for 2026

Our base case is moderate but uneven EXW price growth: +3–6% on premium Brunello across Asia (excluding mainland China), +2–4% on Brunello in Eastern Europe, and broadly flat on Rosso di Montalcino in price-sensitive Eastern European countries. The estates best positioned are those with: a clear segmentation of allocations between Asia and Eastern Europe, a coherent price list across all destinations, and an importer relationship strong enough to absorb currency volatility without erasing margin.

Montalcino does not need to discount. It needs to allocate — and to choose, market by market, where its bottles will tell the strongest story.